The Common Thinking Errors Page
A web-site dedicated to encouraging straight thinking and judgement
by Herbert Colston and Donald Walter, University of Wisconsin - Parkside
The Availability Heuristic
This applet below demonstrates the error in judgment called the "availability heuristic". First run the demonstration applet, then read the explanation below. To run the applet, read the instructions in the yellow box, and click the bar in the middle to continue. Just follow the instructions in the yellow box as they change.
The "availability heuristic" explanation:
The "availability heuristic" works because of how memory works. And what is remembered best. You probably said that there were more men than women in this list. This is normal. Most people overestimate the number of men. Her is how it works.
When you have to make decision about whether men or women were presented more often, you need to count them. The wise consumer will go back through the list and simply count them and find out that there were 14 men and 14 women.
Created by Donald Walter, Ph.D., University of Wisconsin-Parkside, donald.walter@uwp.edu